Technical change and irreversible investment under risk

A stochastic dynamic model was constructed to analyze investment decisions of an individual farme under risk in the presence of legibilities, embedded technical change and indivisible capital. An analytical solution was obtained and its local behavior studied by numerical methods. Optimal investment is obtained by regulating the difference between the desired and actual capital stocks between two barriers that define an inaction interval. While the desired capital drifts between the barriers, no action is taken. If the desired capital touches the upper barrier, the farmer invests pushing the average efficiency of the actual capital stock up. This in turn raises the desired capital even higher and contracts the inaction interval. If these effects are strong enough, the farmer will invest again until the potential gains of the technological package are exhausted. If the desired capital falls enough, the farmer disinvests, pushing down the average productivity and expanding the inaction interval. Disinvestment continues until it slops either because the inaction interval becomes so wide that it is no longer optimal to disinvest or because the actual capital stock is so small that it is no longer profitable to produce.     

Defragmenting Definitions of Entrepreneurial Opportunity*

We examined 19 years worth of definitions of entrepreneurial opportunity and opportunity‐related processes. We found 56 articles in six entrepreneurship‐focused publications, with a total of 49 conceptual definitions and 32 operational definitions. Among those definitions, we identified 25 distinct conceptual and 12 operational elements of opportunity plus 48 conceptual and 39 operational elements of opportunity‐related processes. We found considerable fragmentation across conceptual and operational elements. However, based on commonalities among conceptual definitions, we developed six composite conceptual definitions of opportunity and eight composite conceptual definitions of opportunity‐related processes, which we hope will help reduce the fragmentation of the entrepreneurial opportunity literature.     

The Effect of Pricing and Advertising on Customer Retention in a Liberalizing Market

This study investigates the drivers of customer retention in a liberalizing market. The authors address key retention issues that allow them to contribute to existing retention research in several critical ways. They (1) examine the effects of pricing and mass advertising, (2) account for (new entrants) competitors' actions, (3) investigate the dynamic impact of marketing tactics, and (4) study the proposed relationships in a market recently opened to competition. Using longitudinal data for a sample of 650 mobile phone consumers and a split-population hazard model that accounts for the notion that some customers are never at risk of defection, the authors show that both the focal firm's (incumbent) and the competitors' price and mass advertising exert a significant influence on the probability of terminating an existing incumbent relationship. They find that the relationships between marketing variables and retention are not static but vary over time. Price is generally less effective in the early stages of market liberalization, which suggests that customers become more price sensitive in later stages. Finally, the study findings can have important strategic implications on designing customer management and marketing resource allocation strategies, as well as on providing a competitive regulatory framework in liberalizing markets.     

Barriers to innovation through public procurement: A supplier perspective

Public procurement is increasingly viewed as having important potential to drive innovation. Despite this interest, numerous barriers prevent the public sector from acting as an intelligent and informed customer. This paper seeks to understand how barriers related to processes, competences, procedures and relationships in public procurement influence suppliers? ability to innovate and to reap the benefits of innovation. We address this by exploiting a dedicated survey of public sector suppliers in the UK, using a probit model to investigate the influence of structural, market and innovation determinants on suppliers? perception of these barriers.     

Tourism image, evaluation variables and after purchase behaviour: inter-relationship

Numerous authors have pointed out the influence of tourism image on consumer behaviour. Tourism image will also exercise some influence on the quality perceived by tourists and on the satisfaction obtained from the holiday experience. This paper focuses on the relationship between the image of a destination as perceived by tourists and their behavioural intentions, and between that same image and the post-purchase evaluation of the stay. We will also examine the relationship between quality and satisfaction and between these variables and the tourist's behaviour variables. We place the accent on a joint analysis of these relationships, using a structural equation model. The results of the empirical study show that tourism image is a direct antecedent of perceived quality, satisfaction, intention to return and willingness to recommend the destination. The role of image as a key factor in destination marketing is thus confirmed. With reference to the other relationships, on the one hand, it is confirmed that quality has a positive influence on satisfaction and intention to return and that satisfaction determines the willingness to recommend the destination. However, the influence of quality on ‘willingness to recommend’ and the influence of satisfaction on ‘intention to return’ cannot be corroborated. In this sense, further research could be necessary.     

Social norms and recognition in social fundraising campaigns: The moderating role of self-construal

Developing effective solicitation campaigns has become a priority for nonprofit organizations to raise funds. To do so, they have begun to introduce social information and recognition mechanisms in their campaigns to encourage donations, yet our current understanding of the effectiveness of these interventions is limited. This study intends to contribute to a better understanding of the effectiveness of these campaigns by investigating the role played by social norms, recognition, and their interplay in charitable giving. In addition, the study also investigates the extent to which these effects are moderated by self-construal, an important individual psychological trait. This empirical investigation conducted an experimental design between subjects on a sample of 261 participants. A two-stage correction approach was used to estimate two dependent variables. The effectiveness of social norms and recognition varies depending on the decision in play (whether to donate, or how much to donate) as well as on an individual's self-construal (independent or interdependent). Strategies that combine several of these mechanisms should take into account their objective, that is, whether it is focused on boosting symbolic support or on incentivizing significant contributions. This article contributes by demonstrating that the type of social norm and the type of recognition matter, as they produce significant different effects on both the donation decision and the donation amount.     

Governance, Democracy and Poverty Reduction: Lessons Drawn from Household Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America

Public statistics face quite a challenge when it comes to measuring new dimensions of development (institutions, governance, and social and political participation). To take up this challenge, modules on Governance, Democracy and Multiple Dimensions of Poverty have been appended to household surveys by National Statistics Institutes in twelve African and Latin American developing countries. This paper presents the issues addressed and the methodological lessons learnt along with a selection of findings to illustrate this innovative approach and demonstrate its analytic potential. We investigate, for instance, the population's support for democratic principles, the respect for civil and political rights and the trust in the political class; the ‘need for the State’, particularly of the poorest; the extent of petty corruption; the reliability of expert surveys on governance; the perception of decentralization policies at local level; the level and vitality of social and political participation, etc. The conclusive appraisal made opens up prospects for the national statistical information systems in the developing countries. The measurement and tracking of this new set of objective and subjective public policy monitoring indicators would benefit from being made systematic.     

Beyond Single-Factor Affine Term Structure Models

This article proposes a new approach to testing for the hypothesisof a single priced risk factor driving the term structure ofinterest rates. The method does not rely on any parametric specificationof the state variable dynamics or the market price of risk.It simply exploits the constraint imposed by the no-arbitragecondition on instantaneous expected bond returns. In order toachieve our goal, we develop a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and applyit to data on Treasury bills and bonds for both the United Statesand Spain. We find that the single risk factor hypothesis cannotbe rejected for either dataset.     

Spot water markets and risk in water supply

Water availability patterns in semiarid regions are typically extremely variable. Even in basins with a highly developed infrastructure, users are subject to unreliable water supplies, incurring substantial economic losses during periods of scarcity. More flexible instruments, such as voluntary exchanges of water among users, can help users to reduce risk exposure. This article looks at the effects of spot water markets on the economic risk caused by water availability variations. Our theoretical and empirical risk analyses are based on the random profits of water users. Profit probability density functions are formally and graphically characterized for both water sellers and buyers under several possible market outcomes. We conclude from this analysis that, where water supply is stochastic, water markets unambiguously reduce both parties' risk exposure. The empirical study is conducted on an irrigation district in the Guadalquivir Valley (Southern Spain), where there is a high probability of periods of extreme water scarcity. Water demand functions for the district representative irrigators and a spatial equilibrium model are used to simulate market exchanges and equilibrium. This programming model is combined with statistical simulation techniques. We show that the profit probability distribution of a representative irrigator is modified if water exchanges are authorized, leading to risk reductions. Results also indicate that if the market were extended to several districts and users that are subject to varying hydrological risk exposure, extremely low‐profit events would be less likely to occur. In sum, we show that exchanging water in annual spot markets can reduce farmers' economic vulnerability caused by water supply variability across irrigation seasons. These results support the water policy reform carried out in Spain in 1999 to allow for voluntary water exchanges among right holders.     

Downside Risk in Practice

Although investors associate risk with negative outcomes and downside fluctuations, modern portfolio theory does not. For investors, volatility per se is not necessarily bad; volatility below a benchmark is. A stock that magnifies the market's fluctuations is not necessarily bad; one that magnifies the market's downside swings is. Even Harry Mar‐kowitz, the father of modern portfolio theory, viewed downside risk as a better way to assess risk than the “mean‐variance” framework that he ultimately proposed and that has since become the standard. This article highlights the shortcomings of traditional measures of risk (the standard deviation and beta), introduces the concept of downside risk, and discusses two measures of it—the “semideviation” and “downside beta.” It also discusses the use of such measures in asset pricing models to estimate required returns on equity. Data from a few well‐known companies are used to illustrate that the cost of equity based on downside risk can be substantially different from that based on the CAPM. The article concludes with a brief discussion of risk‐adjusted returns and a comparison of the traditional method of calculating such returns with both the Sharpe ratio and its counterpart in a downside risk framework, the Sortino ratio. The appendix demonstrates how to calculate these risk measures in Excel.